Week Ahead on Wall Street: Temporary Calm

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Eye of the Storm

After several weeks of heightened activity driven by economic data, policy uncertainty and central bank decisions, markets might be in for a relatively quieter week ahead.

There are few high-impact economic indicator releases or major earnings announcements scheduled, which creates space for investors to digest recent developments before the next wave of potential market-moving events. With the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting now in the rearview mirror — a meeting where the Fed left rates unchanged — attention will now shift to commentary expected to come from various Fed officials scheduled to speak throughout the week.

These speeches may provide additional color on how policymakers are interpreting recent economic data and, perhaps more importantly, how they’re factoring trade policy uncertainty into their outlook. 

Comments on these topics would be significant  given how much of the recent market volatility has been driven by this uncertainty, especially in light of the fact that tariffs that President Trump has referred to as “the big one” are set to go into effect on April 2. That dynamic could contribute to a subdued trading environment with the potential for bursts of volatility if headlines on trade roll in.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

• February Chicago Fed National Activity Index: This is a monthly index put together that incorporates 85 indicators from four categories: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories. 
• March S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment.

Tuesday

• March Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Philadelphia Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• January FHFA House Price Index: This is a broad measure of single-family house prices released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. 
• January S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index: This is a private sector measure of national home prices.
• February New Home Sales: While only a minority of home transactions in any given month come from new constructions, these home prices tend to be more cyclical and give insight into developing trends. 
• March Conference Board Consumer Confidence: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on job availability and the state of the labor market. 
• March Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Richmond Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• March Richmond Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Richmond Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Fedspeak: New York Fed President John WIlliams will give opening remarks at a conference at the regional Fed bank.

Wednesday

• February Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators.
• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Fedspeak: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will discuss the economy and monetary policy.

Thursday

• GDP Third Estimate: The primary measure of economic activity in the United States, which is measured as total expenditure on a country’s goods and services. 
• February Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain. 
• February Wholesale and Retail Inventories: Wholesalers and retailers often operate as intermediaries for the sale of manufactured products, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain. 
• March Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Kansas City Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits. Jobless claims have continued to show a labor market that remains strong despite having cooled.
• Fedspeak: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will give a lecture at Washington and Lee University, followed by Q&A.

Friday

• February Personal Income and Spending: These numbers give insight into how Americans are doing, which is important since consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic growth in the United States. 
• February Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: The Fed targets this inflation measure for its price stability mandate and believes PCE to be the best measure of consumers’ spending habits. 
• March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory. 
• March Kansas City Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Kansas City Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Fedspeak: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will moderate a panel on housing finance policy at an event at the regional Fed bank.

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